After making impressive gains in 2020, Sinn Féin was tipped to finally make it into government this year. It’s failure to do so will prompt an internal shake up.

Most recent elections around the West have seen voters punish incumbents for rising inflation and the end of pandemic-era support programs. Ireland’s election last Friday was thus something of a relief for ruling parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

At one level, the vote was an endorsement of continuity, but the stability in Ireland’s political center ground masked volatility on the fringes.

Ireland has proved a partial exception to the anti-incumbent mood in elections around the world. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, which have dominated Irish politics for a century, remain in the driving seat, though their combined share of the vote has declined to just over 40%.

However, no one party fielded enough candidates to win the majority in the Irish General Election 2024, paving the way for another coalition Government - the outgoing Dáil Éireann, elected in 2020, saw Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and The Green Party come together in a coalition.

The Labour Party and the Social Democrats have both made good gains in the general election. But both are understood to be wary of becoming the junior member of a predominantly centre-right coalition – given the centre-left party which took that role the last time has suffered a near wipeout at the polls.

Voters across Ireland cast their ballots in the country’s general election on 29 November. First preference vote shares indicated that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are set to continue their coalition as support for Sinn Féin declines.