The key to the severity of impacts in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico from strengthening Erin depends on how soon a turn to the northwest occurs with a near-miss versus a direct hit.

The NHC forecast advisory predicts Erin will continue westward today before bending west‑northwest tonight and through the weekend as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge. Forecast positions show the storm moving from 16.

Tropical Storm Erin is still moving quickly westward and is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days over the central tropical Atlantic, the NHC said.