Analysts expect profits from companies in the S&P 500 to climb 4.8% in the second quarter, according to FactSet. That would mark the lowest year-over-year growth since 2023, and a steep drop from the 13% jump during the first three months of this year.

Yet the market (as of July 11) isn't far off from its all-time high, and it doesn't seem to be poised for the same explosive sell-off that occurred in early April. Is the stock market underestimating Trump's tariffs?