The takeaway is that markets aren’t pricing in any sort of “succession premium” tied to any one chairman. The glidepath of monetary policy — regardless of Powell’s successor — appears structural, anchored to the Fed’s backward-looking framework . If that holds, it would mark a break from recent history.

The world’s most influential central bankers are gathering in Wyoming this week for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The economic stakes are far more complicated than a year ago. There’s also a pivotal political one: the independence of the Fed Reserve, the world’s largest and most influential central bank.

This week's set-piece event is the Jackson Hole central-bank gathering in Wyoming, slated for Thursday through Saturday. Investors will be glued to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech, hoping for any insight into whether the central bank might kick off interest-rate cuts in September.