China would need to do more than kill or capture Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, as that would leave intact the rest of the government, which has a clear line of succession. The PLA is thus likely to use decapitation strikes as part of a bigger operation, potentially a full-scale invasion.

Now, concerns are growing that newly announced restrictions on China’s exports will lead to a curb on rare earths, hitting a long-recognized vulnerability in Japan’s supply chains.What sparked the latest standoff between Japan and China?