Military analysts predict that Russia will increase the tempo of its operations in a summer offensive to increase pressure on Ukraine, but note that Moscow could struggle to keep up the pace into 2026. Russia shows no intention of wrapping up the war any time soon.

But halting progress, ever-more deadly drone attacks and unmoving negotiating positions seem to have taken their toll. On Thursday, Trump used a striking analogy to concede the warfare was nowhere near over, and that he did not, at that moment, feel it was best to intervene.

In a few early June days, underlying assumptions about Ukraine and Russia were shaken in three ways. On June 1st Ukraine launched one of the most daring raids in the modern history of warfare, releasing killer drones from trucks to scavenge on strategic bombers deep inside Russia,

A firefighter works at a site of a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Sumy region, Ukraine in this handout picture released May 29, 2025. Press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Sumy region/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo (Reuters) -Russian forces have widened the frontline in Ukraine's northern region of Sumy,