Incoming information has confounded Fed Chair Jerome Powell's data-dependent strategy by pulling in both directions.

The takeaway is that markets aren’t pricing in any sort of “succession premium” tied to any one chairman. The glidepath of monetary policy — regardless of Powell’s successor — appears structural, anchored to the Fed’s backward-looking framework . If that holds, it would mark a break from recent history.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak on Friday at the Fed’s annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and Evercore ISI warns that market participants might not love what he has to say.