5 p.m. Update: Erin is now organizing and strengthening over the Central Atlantic. Erin is expected to become at least a Catgory 3 hurricane but missing Puerto Rico to the north and staying well east of Florida. It is expected to reach Jacksonville’s latitude about early Wednesday, resulting in some rough seas and surf at area beaches next week.

Most long-term models predict Erin will curl away from Florida. Those projections often are unreliable more than a week out, and the hurricane center warned that doubt remains in the forecast. In the four- and five- day range, track forecasts have an average error of about 150 to 215 miles, forecasters said.